Season's Greetings

Happy New Year and Merry Christmas

Շնորհավոր Նոր Տարի եւ Սուրբ Ծնունդ

This being the season for giving, please consider sponsoring an Armenian student.

2013 Armenian household survey released

The 2013 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2012), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the variables; there are 5184 households in the survey. You may download the survey for free from the databases page of Armstat (http://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=271). The survey, with select variables aggregated at the household member level, as well as by expenditure type are also available. The complete raw data is not publicly available.
The surveys are available both as xls and sav (spss) files.

Migration survey released

Armstat released the migration survey covering the years 2007-2013. The data is available in SPSS format (.sav), and can be easily converted and read in Stata (a bit more complicated if using a 64 bit computer and do not have the software to directly convert). The sample consists of 31118 individuals.
As the funding organization states, this is "a comprehensive national representative household survey on migration of Armenia’s population in 2007-2013, which measures immigration, emigration, internal migration, return, and addresses the migrants’ savings, remittances and migration’s development effect on population and households."
This is a very valuable and timely source of information on the mobility of the population.

Workshop on "Modeling Market Risk" June 23, 2014

The Armenian Economic Association 2014 conference will conclude with the workshop "Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica". The workshop is scheduled for 10AM-12PM, Monday, June 23rd, and description follows below. Registration is free, but is required to help decide on venue in case of sizeable interest.

Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica

With the creation of global financial networks, banking systems of most countries have become increasingly inter-linked. At the same time, changes in equity prices, interest rates, commodity prices and currencies, i.e. market risk, began to play an increasingly important role in overall risk exposure of financial institutions. Recent global financial crisis forcefully demonstrated great importance of properly measuring and managing risk and, in particular, market risk.

The purpose of the workshop is to discuss fundamental concepts and provide an overview of the key models most frequently used in measuring market risk. This is done in an environment particularly suited for building such models, namely using the software Mathematica (by Wolfram Research). All concepts are illustrated using real data. After the workshop, participants shall be given the fully functional interactive lecture notes written in Mathematica that they can later use to further explore these topics and continue learning about this important subject.

The workshop plans to cover most of the following topics:

• Stylized facts about asset returns
• Key measures of market risk: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CvaR)
• Historical Simulation VaR
• RiskMetrics approach to measuring VaR and CVaR
• Modelling conditional volatility dynamics: GARCH models
• Comparing VaR models
• Modeling non-normality of standardized asset returns
• Backtesting and stress testing market risk models

Workshop will be conducted by Branko Urosevic (PhD in Finance, UC Berkely, USA), Professor of Finance, University of Belgrade, and advisor to USAID/FED.
 
Workshop resgistration:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?usp=drive_web&formkey=dFRMZ0JiNU5mTVlRR3JNYlF5dkN0T0E6MA#gid=0

If you have not registered for the conference (http://www.aea.am/conferences.html), and are interested in attending, you may do so by following this link:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?usp=drive_web&formkey=dGpMME55aXJqbFZVWXg5bGdyMEwtckE6MA#gid=0

Happy Easter

Christ is risen from the dead. Blessed is the resurrection of Christ.

Քրիստոս յարեաւ ի մեռելոց՜ Օրհնեալ է Յարութիւնն Քրիստոսի՜
Kristos haryav ee merelots. Orhnial e Harutiunn Kristosi.

2014 Armenian Economic Association annual meetings

The Armenian Economic Association 2014 annual meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University (YSU), the Russian Armenian University (RAU), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 20-22, followed by a workshop June 23, 2014.

Scholars, graduate students, and researchers are invited to present their research in all areas of economics. Papers may address growth and development issues in Armenia and the South-Caucasus, regional trade patterns, trends in labor markets and migration, the aftermath of the global financial crisis, or any other topic representing current advances in economics and finance. Both theoretical and empirical works are welcome. The language of the conference is Armenian and English, and sessions will be organized by language and JEL fields below:

• Microeconomics; Industry Studies
• Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
• International Economics
• Financial Economics
• Public Economics
• Labor and Demographic Economics, Health, Education, and Welfare
• Growth, Economic Development, and Transition Economics
• Agricultural, Natural Resources, and Environmental Economics
• Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

If interested, please submit an abstract at http://aea.am/conferences.html, alternatively email it to aea2014[at] aea.am by April 15th. Submitted abstracts should be less than 500 words and include: title of paper, name(s) of author(s), affiliation, current position, an email address, and at least one keyword. In the abstract, please identify the research question, methods, and outcomes (obtained or expected). The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars, researchers, and students to promote the exchange of ideas and advance economics scholarship.

There is no submission fee nor any cost to present and participate. Contributions are welcomed by AEA.
If interested, apply for AEA membership here.

2012 Household survey released

The 2012 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2011), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the variables. You may download the survey for free from the databases page of http://armstat.am/. The survey, with select variables at the household member level, as well as by expenditure type (2011-12) are also available. The complete raw data is not publicly available.
The surveys are available both as xls and sav (spss) files. See my previous post to read or convert sav files to dta (stata).

Pension reform in Armenia

Armenia's new pension system took effect this month, on schedule as part of legislation enacted in 2010. It consists of three pillars, with Pillar II calling for a mandatory private pension contribution scheme for those age 40 and under. By doing so Armenia joins a number of developed economies that have mandatory private pension plans in effect. Below is a snapshot from an OECD report on the prevalence of mandatory private pensions in 2010; countries with such plans include Australia, Chile, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland (recently switched to public), Slovakia, Sweden, and Switzerland. Even in countries that have "voluntary" private coverage, the plans are not strictly voluntary. Voluntary plans available by virtue of one's occupation (e.g. unionized shops) are not truly voluntary except for the choice of employment. Some of the countries listed in the table below may also have public plans. In the US, the social security system, a public plan, mandates a contribution rate of about 12 percent.
A short background and description of the challenges is provided by Delloitte. And everything you ever wanted to know about the new pension plan are provided by PALM. Despite the very wide publicity, seminars, and conferences, over a span of several years, only recently some opposition to the plan was expressed by some groups. Of course, there is widespread support for the provision of pension benefits to the elderly. All along I had expected some opposition, on ideological or philosophical grounds, to the proposed plan by those who support a public over a private plan. In other words, whether the government should tax workers and use the proceeds to fund retirees (PAYGO or otherwise). But the current debates have little to do with this, and I really do not see the merit of the arguments presented. The questions at hand are: do you want to provide the elderly with pension benefits, and if so, how do you fund it? These are very simple questions but yet not simple to address.

Note: This survey refers only to the experience of 34 OECD countries. A number of other countries have Pillar 2 type pensions in place. [Added January 18th]



Source: OECD WORKING PAPERS ON FINANCE, INSURANCE AND PRIVATE PENSIONS, NO. 20, 2012; "COVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS: EVIDENCE AND POLICY OPTIONS"