Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Rapid Recovery

The government reported that the economy grew by 7.2 percent during the months January through April when compared to the same period last year. However, if one were to look at indicators for the monthly performance of the economy a much faster growth pattern would emerge. In April, for instance, the economy grew at a rate of 12 percent; 10.5 in March, 2.8 in February, and 2 percent in January. But because the governmental statistical agency (Armstat) reports these figures on a cumulative basis for the year, sharp expansions and contractions are smoothed over. An example of the latter, GDP shrank by some 20 percent in April of last year; the published cumulative figures showed 9.8 percent contraction only.

There are potentially many factors at play in shaping this recovery. But regardless of the nature or sources of these factors, if this trend continues the country is likely to experience very rapid growth that could very well be in the double digits.

Source: Cumulative GDP growth from Armstat (Blue); Monthly GDP growth computed from Armstat published GDP and GDP deflator figures (Orange). Also see earlier post.