2011 Household Survey Released

The 2011 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2010), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the variables. You may download the survey for free but registration is required. The survey, with select variables at the household member level, was also released (no registration required).
The survey of 7872 households is available both as an xls and sav (spss) files. See my previous post to read or convert sav files to dta (stata).
As always, links to this and other survey data on Armenia are provided in the Resources page of aea.am.

Regional relations by the numbers

Armenia is a small player in the region. It imported USD 196 million from Iran and 749 million from Russia in 2010. These are dwarfed by those of Turkey which imported 12461 and 23650 million, respectively.

FDI in 2011

FDI continued to decline in 2011. It first grew by 25 percent in the first quater (year over year), and 12 percent in Q2. But then it declined by 20 percent in Q3 and 77 percent in Q4. How much of this pattern is influenced by the slowdown in Europe?

Net FDI: 1993-2011

2010 Demographic and Health Survey released

Armenia's 2010 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) was just released.
The DHS program surveys are nationally-representative household surveys that provide data for a wide range of indicators in the areas of population, health, and nutrition.

The DHS program surveys over 90 countries. Surveys for Armenia are available for 2000, 2005, and 2010. These can be downloaded (registration is required) from http://www.measuredhs.com/

CFP: Armenian Economic Association 2012 Conference

The Armenian Economic Association 2012 meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University and the American University of Armenia on October 13-14, 2012.

Scholars, graduate students, and researchers are invited to present their research in all areas of economics. Papers may address the Financial Crisis, well being in the Caucasus, regional trade patterns, or any other topic in economics. Both theoretical and empirical works are welcome. The language of the conference is Armenian and English, and sessions will be organized by language and field.

Abstracts should be less than 500 words and include: title of paper, name(s) of author(s), affiliation, current position, an email address, and at least one keyword. In the abstract, please identify the research question, methods, and outcomes (obtained or expected) of the research. Deadline for abstract submissions is June 30th, and the deadline for final papers is September 15th, 2012.

For submissions and conference information, visit http://aea.am/conferences.html.
Direct link for abstract submissions here.
Contact: annual2012 [at] aea.am

Paper on implications of free trade agreements

A recent paper by Jesper Jensen and David G. Tarr, entitled "Deep Trade Policy Options for Armenia: The Importance of Trade Facilitation, Services and Standards Liberalization" addresses the implication of free trade agreements for Armenia. They conclude that significant gains can result from deep trade agreements, and a small loss if agreements are limited to tariff liberalization.

The abstract is reported below and the complete paper can be accessed at http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-1.

Abstract:
In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a DCFTA with the EU will likely result in substantial gains to Armenia, but they show that the gains derive from the deep aspects of the agreement. In order of importance, the sources of the gains are: (i) trade facilitation and reduction in border costs; (ii) services liberalization; and (iii) standards harmonization. A shallow agreement with the EU that focuses only on preferential tariff liberalization in goods will likely lead to small losses to Armenia primarily due to a loss of productivity from lost varieties of technologies from the Rest of the World region in manufactured products. Additional gains can be expected in the long run from an improvement in the investment climate. The authors estimate only small gains from a services agreement with the CIS countries, but significant gains from expanding services liberalization multilaterally.

A Blessed Easter

Christ is risen from the dead. Blessed is the resurrection of Christ.

Քրիստոս յարեաւ ի մեռելոց՜ Օրհնեալ է Յարութիւնն Քրիստոսի՜
Kristos haryav ee merelots. Orhnial e Harutiunn Kristosi.

Recovery of remittances

Remittances are on the rebound, and have recovered to nearly their pre-crisis levels. But they are below the levels suggested by their past trend. Russia is much of the source of these flows. Similar pattern should be observed for neighboring countries and others in the region.
For data on remittances for all countries in the world and for the years 1970 forward, see here.


Net non-commercial money transfers of individuals through commercial banks (USD millions)

Gradual economic recovery

After the major slump since the unset of the global crisis where Armenia's GDP shrank by 14 percent in 2009, the economy seems to be recovering. It is growing only at half the double digit growth rate experienced in much of the past decade, but nevertheless a very welcome pace of recovery.

Real GDP growth rates (%); 2012 is for the months of January-February












An alternative view is provided by the trend in per capita GDP (in nominal USD). But this trend is at times influenced by exchange rate fluctuations.

Per capita GDP

Global crisis and migration from Armenia

The global financial crisis continues to leave its marks on the Armenian economy as can be gleaned from migration patterns. The number of those leaving the country has been outpacing those of arrivals in recent years, with the net figure peaking at around 44,000 in 2011. This represents a reversal of the growing net inflows witnessed in the first half of the decade.

Armenia is not unique in experiencing an increase in the outflow of migrants from developing countries in the aftermath of the Crisis. And the observed pattern continues to highlight the weak recovery of the Armenian economy. While this pales in comparison to the outflow experienced in the early 1990s, it nevertheless is a source of concern. It would be good to see some research on the attributes of these migrants, and on whether this is a temporary or permanent phenomenon.



Net Departures. For greater detail on arrivals and departures, see data page (under resources) of aea.am