Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Armenian Economic Association 2016 Meetings Program

The Armenian Economic Association 2016 annual meetings will be jointly hosted b y Yerevan State University (YSU), the International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 17-19. This is followed by a Macroeconomics Workshop on Growth Theory hosted by CRRC-Armenia on June 20, at 2-4PM.

Conference page: http://aea.am/conferences.html
Meetings Registration here.
Workshop Registration here.
Free

Program

Friday June 17 -- Yerevan State University, Faculty of Economics, Abovyan street #52

14:00 Registration

15:00 Welcome

15:30 short break

15:40 Keynote speech -- Main Hall
Laura Bailey, World Bank Armenia country manager

16:30 coffee break

17:00 Session 1A: International Trade

Chair: Heghine Manasyan, CRRC-Armenia

Trade effects for Armenia in joining the EEU, Astghik Mkhitaryan and Taguhi Hakobyan, Central Bank of Armenia

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Evidence from Armenia, Hayk Hambardzumyan and Gayane Barseghyan, American University of Armenia

Trade Shocks and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies, Karolina Matikyan and Mane Harutyunyan, Central Bank of Armenia

The Transfer Problem, Federico Trionfetti, Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), France

17:00 Session 1B: Armenian session, see below

Saturday, June 18 – ICARE, 74 Teryan Street (Agribusiness Teaching Center Entrance from Teryan St.)

10:00 Session 2A: Agricultural Economics I, ICARE and IAMO session (Room A)

Chair: Vardan Urutyan, ICARE

Analysis of oligopolistic behaviour of Kazakh and Russian exporters in the South Caucasian wheat markets, Gulmira Gafarova, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Thomas Glauben, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany

Spatial integration of South Caucasian and Central Asian wheat markets with the world wheat markets: Evidence from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Miranda Svanidze, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany

Comparative Analysis of Wheat Supply Chains in Armenia and Uzbekistan, Ihtiyor Bobojonov, Adkham Akbarov, Ramona Teuber, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk and Thomas Glauben, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany

Factors affecting smallholder wheat production in Armenia, Anna Yeritsyan, Vardan Urutyan, Hovhannes Mnatsakanyan, ICARE

10:00 Session 2B: Macroeconomics I (Room B)

Chair: Ashot Mkrchyan, Central Bank of Armenia

Business Cycles in Armenia: The Importance of Permanent and Transitory Shocks, Astghik Serobyan and Mane Harutyunyan: Central Bank of Armenia

Exchange Rate Variability and Optimum Currency Area Theory: Evidence from Post-Soviet Countries, Gayane Barseghyan, American University of Armenia

Long Run Returns to Government Investment in Low-Income Countries, David Gomtsyan, University of Turin, Italy

12:00 Lunch

13:30 Session 3A: Agricultural Economics II, ICARE and IAMO session (Room A)

Chair: Anna Yeritsyan, ICARE

CIS market integration and price transmission along the supply chains - What are the main driving forces and challenges? Ivan Djuric, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany

Measuring the degree of oligopsony power in the Kazakh grain and feed milling industry Giorgi Chezhia, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Thomas Glauben, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany

Does farm enlargement pay off? Example of the Armenian dairy sector, Vardan Urutyan, Anna Yeritsyan, Narek Avetisyan, ICARE

13:30 Session 3B: Finance (Room B)

Chair: Levon Barkhudaryan

Systemic Operational Risk: Spillover Effects of Large Operational Losses in the European Banking Industry, Suren Pakhchanyan, University of Oldenburg, Finance and Banking (with Thomas Kaspereit, Kerstin Lopatta,- University of Oldenburg, Chair of Accounting and Corporate Governance, Jörg Prokop - Chair of Finance and Banking)

How Much are Credit Ratings Really Worth? Armen Arakelyan, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV), Spain (with Eric Duca, Carlos Salvador)

The output effects of declining spreads in Armenia: 2003-2013, Vahe Charchyan, Central Bank of Armenia

15:00 Coffee and Networking

Sunday June 19, American University of Armenia, 40 Marshall Baghramyan Avenue, Yerevan

9:30 Session 4A: Theory (Room 213W)

Chair: Bruce Boghosian, Tufts University, USA

Dynamic Allocation Implementation with Gradual Learning and Costly Mechanisms, Aram Grigoryan, Duke University, USA

Rubinstein Bargaining at the Court, Laura Manukyan, ISET, Georgia

Insecure Property Rights and the Missing Middle, Aram Grigoryan, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA (with Mattias Polborn, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA)

New results in asset-exchange models of wealth distribution, Bruce Boghosian, Tufts University, USA (with Adrian Devitt-Lee, Jie Li, Jeremy Marcq, Hongyan Wang)

9:30 Session 4B: Labor (Room 214W)

Chair: Gayane Barshegyan, American University of Armenia

The choice of women between employment and homestay, and their happiness and life satisfaction: the case of the South Caucasus, Karine Torosyan (with Norberto Pignatti, Nino Doghonadze), ISET Georgia

Short-run Implications of Health Insurance Implementation in Armenia, Grisha Khachatryan and Vardan Adibekyan, Central Bank of Armenia

Why do migrant workers rely more often on referrals? Sevak Alaverdyan, Bielefeld Graduate School of Economics and Management (BiGSEM), Bielefeld University, Germany

9:30 Session 4C: Environment (Room 313W)

Chair: Naira Harutyunyan, Armenian Development Foundation

Maintaining Adequate Drinking Water Supply: What the Public Gets and How it Reacts, Naira Harutyunyan, Armenian Development Foundation

Ecologization of the tax system of Armenia: the purpose and issues, Ara Karyan, Yerevan State University

11:00 coffee break

11:30 Session 5A: Productivity and growth (Room 213W)

Chair: Vahagn Jerbashian, University of Barcelona, Spain

Automation and Job Polarization: On the Decline of Middling Occupations in Europe, Vahagn Jerbashian, University of Barcelona, Spain, and CERGE-EI, Czech Republic

Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress, Shushanik Papanyan, BBVA Compass/BBVA Research, USA

Rise of the Machines: Evidence from the Container Revolution, David Gomtsyan, University of Turin, Italy

Minorities and Long-run Development: Persistence of Armenian and Greek Influence in Turkey, Gunes Gokmen, New Economic School, Russia (with Cemal Eren Arbatli, NRU Higher School Of Economics, Russia)

11:30 Session 5B: Migration (Room 214W)

Chair: Karine Torosyan, ISET, Georgia

Relative Standing and Temporary Migration: Empirical Evidence from the South Caucasus, Armenak Antinyan, CRRC-Armenia/American University of Armenia/Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, China (with Luca Corazzini)

Migration in the estimated new Keynesian DSGE model for Armenia and Russia, Haykaz Igityan, Central Bank of Armenia

11:30 Session 5C: Macroeconomics II (Room 313W)

Chair: Hovsep Patvakanyan, Russian-Armenian University

Monetary regulation policy in Armenia 2014-2015: shortcomings and opportunities, Edward Sandoyan, Ani Avetisyan, and Liana Margaryan, Russian-Armenian University

Reserve requirements of the central bank: approaches and development, Lida Mnatsakanyan and Fedya Adiyan, Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University

Problems of assessment and forecasting of exogenuosly driven inflation: case of Armenia, Hovsep Patvakanyan, Russian-Armenian University

11:30 Session 5D: Advanced econometrics demonstration

Short-term economic forecasting using 'ForecastXL' package, Karen Poghosyan, Central Bank of Armenia

13:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00: Keynote lecture
Ruben Enikolopov, New Economic School (Moscow) and Univesitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona)

14:30 Session 6A: Macroeconomics III (Room 213W)

Chair: Teresa Daban, International Monetary Fund

Monetary policy in an open economy: the role of financial dollarization, Narek Ohanyan, American University of Armenia

Testing monetary policy: Rules versus discretion, Narek Ohanyan and Aleksandr Grigoryan, American University of Armenia

Developments of Credit Demand and Supply in Armenian Banking System, Hayk Sargsyan, Central Bank of Armenia

14:30 Session 6B: Political economy (Room 214W)

Chair: Vardan Baghdasaryan, American University of Armenia

Costly Voting with Multiple Candidates, Mariam Arzumanyan, Central Bank of Armenia (with Mattias Polborn, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA)

Costly Voting in Runoff Elections, Mariam Arzumanyan, Central Bank of Armenia (with Mattias Polborn, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA)

Set them (almost) free. Discretion in electoral campaign under asymmetric information, Vardan Baghdasaryan, American University of Armenia

Making Anocracy Work: The Microfoundations of Fiscal Policy in "Hybrid Regimes", Babken DerGrigorian, London School of Economic, UK

14:30 Session 6C: See Armenian session below (Room 313W)

16:00 coffee break

16:30 Session 7A: Personal finance (Room 213W)

Chair: Gurgen Aslanyan, Central Bank of Armenia

The Effects of Varying Contract Terms for Consumer Credit with Marginal Borrowers: Evidence from Mexico, Diego Jimenez Hernandez, Stanford University, USA

Bankruptcy Rates among NFL Players with Short-Lived Income Spikes, Joshua Kim, Stanford University, USA

Does Financial Literacy Induce Behavioural Changes? Gurgen Aslanyan, Central Bank of Armenia (with Derdzyan, Mkhitaryan, Serobyan)

16:30 Session 7B: Development (Room 214W)

Chair: Gharib Harutyunyan, Armenian State University of Economics Gyumri Granch

City disparities and ATM networks, Sergey Avetisyan, Central Bank of Armenia

The assessment of the results of social-economic reforms of developing countries with the help of integral index of reforms, Ani Khachatryan, Armenian State University of Economics

Impacts of Tourism Development in Lanchkhuti Municipality, Eka Devidze, International Black Sea University, Georgia

The methodological issues of the assessment of investment climate of cities in Armenia, Gharib Harutyunyan, Armenian State University of Economics Gyumri Granch

16:30 Session 7C: Agricultural Economics III -- student session (Room 313W)

Chair: Sona Telunts, Agribusiness Teaching Center

Feasibility Assessment of Producing Buckwheat through Agricultural Cooperatives in Armenia, Gayane Petrosyan, ICARE

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Insurance with an Application to Apricot in Armavir Region of Armenia, Artak Meloyan, ICARE

Surplus Purchase Program for Grapes in Armenia, Gohar Sahakyan and Lena Mamikonyan, ICARE

Establishing Olive Orchards in Armenia, Hayrapet Saharyan and Sona Telunts, Agribusiness Teaching Center

Empirical Estimation of Per Capita Armenian Brandy Consumption, Suren Movsisyan, Armenian National Agrarian University

19:00 Best paper awards (Room 213W)

Monday, June 20, CRRC-Armenia, 1 Alex Manoogian Street, YSU Library building, 6th floor, room 602
14:00-16:00: Macroeconomics Workshop on Growth Theory. Vahagn Jerbashian, University of Barcelona, Spain

ՀԱՅԿԱԿԱՆ ՏՆՏԵՍԱԳԻՏԱԿԱՆ ՄԻՈՒԹՅԱՆ
2016 ՏԱՐԵԿԱՆ ԳԻՏԱԺՈՂՈՎ
Հունիսի 17-19, ք. Երևան, Հայաստան

ՀԱՅԵՐԵՆ ԾՐԱԳԻՐ

Ուրբաթ, 17 հունիսի 2016թ.
Երևանի պետական համալսարան, Տնտեսագիտության և կառավարման ֆակուլտետ

14:00 Գրանցում (ԵՊՀ Տնտեսագիտության և կառավարման ֆակուլտետի դահլիճի նախամուտք)

15:00 Բացման արարողություն (ԵՊՀ Տնտեսագիտության և կառավարման ֆակուլտետի դահլիճ)

15:40 Գլխավոր զեկույց I (ԵՊՀ Տնտեսագիտության և կառավարման ֆակուլտետի դահլիճ)
Լաուրա Բեյլի, Համաշխարհային Բանկի հայաստանյան գրասենյակի ներկայացուցիչ

16:30 Սուրճի ընդմիջում

17:00 Բաժանմունք 1(Ա). Միջազգային առտուր (տես` անգլերեն ծրագիրը)

17:00 Բաժանմունք 1 (Բ) Սահմանադրական տնտեսագիտություն (ԵՊՀ Տնտեսագիտության և կառավարման ֆակուլտետի դահլիճ)
Նախագահող` Կառլեն Խաչատրյան (ԵՊՀ)

16:00 Հայկ Սարգսյան (ԵՊՀ), Սահմանադրականության գնահատման, մոնիթորինգի և կառավարման հիմնախնդիրները

16:40 Ռուբեն Գևորգյան (ԵՊՀ), Վիճակագրական մեթոդները սահմանադրական տնտեսագիտությունու

17:00 Ժիրայր Մխիթարյան (ԵՊՀ), Սահմանադրականության համաթիվը որպես սահմանադրականության գնահատման անկյունաքար


Շաբաթ, 18 հունիսի 2016թ., Ագրոբիզնեսի Հետազոտությունների և Ուսուցման Միջազգային Կենտրոն

10:00 Բաժանմունք 2(Ա).
10:00 – 15:00 (տես` անգլերեն ծրագիրը)

Կիրակի, 19 հունիսի 2016թ., Հայաստանի Ամերիկյան Համալսարան

09:30 – 17:30 (տես` անգլերեն ծրագիրը)

13:00 Գլխավոր զեկույց II
Ռուբեն Էնիկոլոպով, (Բարսելոնայի Պոմպեու Ֆաբրա համալսարան և Մոսկվայի նոր տնտեսագիտական դպրոց)

14:30 Բաժանմունք 6(Գ) Տնտեսագիտական հիմնահարցեր (Room 313W)
Նախագահող՝

14:30 Վարդուհի Գաբրիելյան (ԵՊՀ), Պետական գույքային հարաբերությունների կարգավորման ժամանակակից միտումները,

15:00 Մելս Սահակյան և Գայանե Թումանյան (ԵՊՀ), Գովազդարշավի պլանավորման մոտեցում

19:00 Փակման արարողություն և մրցանակների հանձնում

Monday, March 28, 2016

2014 Armenian Labor Force Survey Released

Armstat recently released the 2014 labor force survey. It can be downloaded in either SPSS (sav file) or Excel.
The survey consists of a sample of 29453 individuals, and provides detailed information on their demographics, employment situation, among others. The provided information is typically richer than the information publically available on individuals in the annual household surveys.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Happy Easter

Christ is risen from the dead. Blessed is the resurrection of Christ.

Քրիստոս յարեաւ ի մեռելոց՜ Օրհնեալ է Յարութիւնն Քրիստոսի՜
Kristos haryav ee merelots. Orhnial e Harutiunn Kristosi.

Monday, March 07, 2016

Armenian Economic Association 2016 Conference Call for Papers

The Armenian Economic Association 2016 annual meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University (YSU), the International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 17-19.

Scholars, researchers, and graduate students, are invited to present their research in all areas of economics and finance. Papers may address growth and development issues in Armenia and the South-Caucasus, the ramifications of global and regional economic shocks, integration with the Eurasian Union and the EU, regional trade patterns, trends in labor markets and migration, tax policy, or any other topic representing current advances in economics and finance. Both theoretical and empirical works are welcome. The language of the  conference is Armenian and English, and sessions will be organized by language and JEL fields:
• Microeconomics; Industry Studies
• Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
• International Economics; Trade
• Financial Economics; Finance
• Public Economics, Political Economy
• Labor and Demographic Economics
• Growth, Development, and Transition Economics
• Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

If interested, please submit abstracts (of less than 500 words) at http://aea.am/conferences.html by 20th April, 2016; decision by April 30th. The submission of complete sessions with 3-4 papers is welcome. There is no submission fee, nor any cost to present and participate.

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Workshop on Inclusive Growth in Armenia


INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN ARMENIA

Thursday, 31 March 2016, 16:00-18:30
Manoogian Hall, American University of Armenia
Yerevan, Armenia

Synopsis
Inclusive economic growth has become a popular topic of discussion not only among academics but also policymakers, international financial institutions, and the civil society in general. The international experience suggests that policies promoting inclusive growth are a crucial factor to ensure sustainable economic development while enhancing social justice and reducing conflict.
The seminar, which is open to the general public, will feature a public lecture by Professor Ravi Kanbur of Cornell University focused on the theory and practice of inclusive economic growth and an empirical application in the case of Armenia provided by Aleksandr Grigoryan of the American University of Armenia. The event is part of a broader Asian Development Bank’s study on: “Good Jobs for Inclusive Growth in Central and West Asia”. Discussions will cover issues related to inequality in terms of income and opportunities, social protection, as well as development of institutions and human capabilities.

AGENDA

15:30–16:00 Registration

16:00–16:10 Chair: Vardan Baghdasaryan, Armenian Economic Association
                      Welcome Address
                      Randall Rodes, Provost, American University of Armenia

16:10–17:00 Public Lecture
                      Inclusive Growth: Global Forces and National Policies
                      Guest Speaker: Ravi Kanbur, Professor of Economics, Cornell University

17:00–17:15 Coffee break

17:15–17:40 Inclusive Growth and Income Distribution: The Case of Armenia
                      Aleksandr Grigoryan, Professor, American University of Armenia

17:40–18:00 Discussants:
                      Guanghua Wan, Director for Research, Asian Development Bank Institute
                      Gayane Barseghyan, Assistant Professor, American University of Armenia

18:00–18:30 Open floor discussion
18:30              Adjourn

Professor Ravi Kanbur is the T.H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, and Professor of Economics at Cornell University.

Professor Aleksandr Grigoryan is the chair of the MBA program at the American University of Armenia, and President of the Armenian Economic Association

There is no fee to attend. Registration at the beginning of the workshop.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

2014 Armenian Household Survey Released

The 2014 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2013), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the available variables; there are 5184 households in the survey. You may download the survey for free from the databases page of Armstat (http://armstat.am/en/?nid=271). The survey, with fewer select variables aggregated at the household member level (http://armstat.am/en/?nid=374), as well as by expenditure type (http://armstat.am/en/?nid=452) are also available. The survey is available both as xls and sav (spss) files.
While the data have many useful applications, the limited information available at the household members level make the data not very suitable for many micro applications. As an example, we do not observe member level income and sources; these are aggregated at the household level. The full and richer raw data is typically available to the staff of some governmental agencies and international organizations, or their consultants; they are seldom available to academics. Obviously, Armstat is trying to balance data access with protecting the confidentiality of survey participants. But given that household level data is already made available, I am not sure if there is anything to gain from not providing the member level data at the very least to academics. For a regional comparison, see the much richer available Georgian Surveys (http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=meurneoba&mpid=1&lang=eng).

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Recent developments related to electric power in Armenia

It never ceases to amaze me how governments over and over fail to adequately communicate with their citizenry. A case in point is the recent decision by regulators in Armenia to allow ENA, the private electricity distribution network formed over a decade ago, to raise the peak tariff rate it charges consumers from about AMD 42 in 2014 to 48 per KWH in 2015, or from about USD 0.09 to 0.10 per KWH (with similar change to the off-peak rate).

Privately owned firms are free to set any price they want for their products. For privately owned public utilities, however, government regulators typically set rates so as to allow firms to realize a certain rate of return to recover their costs; public utilities, as natural monopolists, may otherwise charge much higher prices. For the electric grid in Armenia, the tariff rate has been fixed at 25 Drams for several years (pre and post privatization) until April of 2009 when it was raised by 20 percent to 30 Drams, which also happens to be the rate at which the Dram depreciated relative to the Dollar in the previous month. As the Dram continued to depreciate following the global Great Recession, regulators seem to have allowed the utility to charge higher tariff rates, albeit with a lag as the figure below shows.

Foreign investment in public utilities in Armenia, effectively electric and gas, took off in 2006, peaking in 2008 at USD 477 million in FDI; they dramatically declined to USD 7 million by 2013 (see here). When stated in USD, the tariff rates have changed little over this period. Raising tariff rates would be welcome by power providers as it will help them recover their costs. Of course consumers can get hurt by this, and it is no surprise that some strongly oppose raising rates. Unfortunately, and given the aging infrastructure, and in particular the nuclear power plant, tariff rates are likely to increase much more dramatically over the next decade to cover the cost of new investments. I am not sure that this is being communicated well to the public.


Electricity peak tariff rates in Armenia 

Reading resources:

Republic of Armenia : Power Sector Tariff Study (2013)
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16703

From Crisis to Stability in the Armenian Power Sector Lessons Learned from Armenia’s Energy Reform Experience (2006)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARMENIA/Resources/Armenia-Energy-Crisis-to-Stability.pdf

Also the following is useful:
Armenia Power Sector Policy Note (2014)
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24421395/armenia-power-sector-policy-note

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Armenian Economic Association 2015 Annual Meetings

The Armenian Economic Association 2015 annual meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University (YSU), the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA-Dilijan), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 19-21, followed by a workshop on “Forecasting techniques and forecast evaluation” on Monday, June 22, at CBA-Yerevan. Preliminary program is  available at http://aea.am/conferences.html.

Registration for the meetings and the workshop is free at the conference homepage at http://aea.am/conferences.html.

The Conference brings together academics and researchers from Armenia, Canada, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Netherland, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States. Presentations over the three days include over 50 papers which address topics in agriculture, finance, international trade, economic development, macro and microeconomics, migration, political economy, and among others.

The keynote speaker on Friday, June 19th, is Professor Armen Hovakimian, Chairman of the Finance and Economics Department at Baruch College, City University of New York, and the luncheon speaker on Sunday, June 21th, is Dr. David Dole, Country Director, Asian Development Bank.

The meetings conclude Sunday evening, June 21, at AUA, with the best paper award ceremony. Three categories of awards are available: Armen Alchian Awards for papers of general interest; Grigor Artzruni Awards for young scholars; and International Monetary Fund Awards for papers in Macroeconomics and International Economics.

On Monday, June 22nd, 10AM-3PM, Professor Tatevik Sekhposyan of Texas A&M University, formerly of central Bank of Canada will conduct a workshop on Forecasting models at CBA-Yerevan.

Forecasting Workshop: Armenian Economic Association 2015 Meetings

The Armenian Economic Association 2015 Annual Meetings conclude with a workshop on "Forecasting techniques and forecast evaluation," hosted by the Central Bank of Armenia at 10AM-3PM, on June 22nd, 2015.
This workshop examines time series models used for forecasting macroeconomic series and discusses forecast evaluation techniques. The main emphasis is on forecast evaluation techniques covering tests of relative and absolute evaluation and briefly considering the assessment of predictive density calibration. The workshop will involve both theoretical and empirical aspects of forecast evaluation.
Duration: 10AM-3PM; 2-hour lecture segment, with an hour break in between
Prerequisites: This is a graduate level workshop. Audience should be comfortable with simple algebra and familiar with basic concepts of econometrics.
About the instructor: Tatevik Sekhposyan is an Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics at the Texas A&M University at College Station. She has worked previously at the central Bank of Canada and holds a Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. See more at http://www.tateviksekhposyan.org/
Registration is free but is required at the conference page http://aea.am/conferences.html

Saturday, April 04, 2015

A Blessed Easter

Christ is risen from the dead. Blessed is the resurrection of Christ.

Քրիստոս յարեաւ ի մեռելոց՜ Օրհնեալ է Յարութիւնն Քրիստոսի՜
Kristos haryav ee merelots. Orhnial e Harutiunn Kristosi.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

2015 Armenian Economic Association Annual Meetings

The Armenian Economic Association 2015 annual meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University (YSU), the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 19-21.

Scholars, researchers, and graduate students, are invited to present their research in all areas of economics and finance. Papers may address growth and development issues in Armenia and the South-Caucasus, the emerging financial crisis in the region, regional trade patterns, trends in labor markets and migration, or any other topic representing current advances in economics and finance. Both theoretical and empirical works are welcome. The language of the conference is Armenian and English, and sessions will be organized by language and JEL fields below:

* Microeconomics; Industry Studies
* Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
* International Economics
* Financial Economics
* Public Economics
* Labor and Demographic Economics, Health, Education, and Welfare
* Growth, Economic Development, and Transition Economics
* Agricultural, Natural Resources, and Environmental Economics
* Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

If interested, please submit an abstract at http://aea.am/conferences.html by April 15th; decision by April 30th. Submitted abstracts should be less than 500 words and include: title of paper, name(s) of author(s), affiliation, current position, an email address, at least one keyword.  In the abstract, please identify the research, methods, and outcomes (obtained or expected). The submission of complete sessions with 3-4 papers is also welcome, and highly encouraged.

There is no submission fee nor any cost to present and participate. Contributions and sponsors are welcome.

Conference homepage: http://aea.am/conferences.html
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ArmenianEconomicAssociation

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Season's Greetings


Happy New Year and Merry Christmas

Շնորհավոր Նոր Տարի եւ Սուրբ Ծնունդ

This being the season for giving, please consider sponsoring an Armenian student.

Monday, December 08, 2014

2013 Armenian household survey released

The 2013 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2012), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the variables; there are 5184 households in the survey. You may download the survey for free from the databases page of Armstat (http://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=271). The survey, with select variables aggregated at the household member level, as well as by expenditure type are also available. The complete raw data is not publicly available.
The surveys are available both as xls and sav (spss) files.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Migration survey released

Armstat released the migration survey covering the years 2007-2013. The data is available in SPSS format (.sav), and can be easily converted and read in Stata (a bit more complicated if using a 64 bit computer and do not have the software to directly convert). The sample consists of 31118 individuals.
As the funding organization states, this is "a comprehensive national representative household survey on migration of Armenia’s population in 2007-2013, which measures immigration, emigration, internal migration, return, and addresses the migrants’ savings, remittances and migration’s development effect on population and households."
This is a very valuable and timely source of information on the mobility of the population.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Workshop on "Modeling Market Risk" June 23, 2014

The Armenian Economic Association 2014 conference will conclude with the workshop "Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica". The workshop is scheduled for 10AM-12PM, Monday, June 23rd, and description follows below. Registration is free, but is required to help decide on venue in case of sizeable interest.

Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica

With the creation of global financial networks, banking systems of most countries have become increasingly inter-linked. At the same time, changes in equity prices, interest rates, commodity prices and currencies, i.e. market risk, began to play an increasingly important role in overall risk exposure of financial institutions. Recent global financial crisis forcefully demonstrated great importance of properly measuring and managing risk and, in particular, market risk.

The purpose of the workshop is to discuss fundamental concepts and provide an overview of the key models most frequently used in measuring market risk. This is done in an environment particularly suited for building such models, namely using the software Mathematica (by Wolfram Research). All concepts are illustrated using real data. After the workshop, participants shall be given the fully functional interactive lecture notes written in Mathematica that they can later use to further explore these topics and continue learning about this important subject.

The workshop plans to cover most of the following topics:

• Stylized facts about asset returns
• Key measures of market risk: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CvaR)
• Historical Simulation VaR
• RiskMetrics approach to measuring VaR and CVaR
• Modelling conditional volatility dynamics: GARCH models
• Comparing VaR models
• Modeling non-normality of standardized asset returns
• Backtesting and stress testing market risk models

Workshop will be conducted by Branko Urosevic (PhD in Finance, UC Berkely, USA), Professor of Finance, University of Belgrade, and advisor to USAID/FED.
 
Workshop resgistration:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?usp=drive_web&formkey=dFRMZ0JiNU5mTVlRR3JNYlF5dkN0T0E6MA#gid=0

If you have not registered for the conference (http://www.aea.am/conferences.html), and are interested in attending, you may do so by following this link:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?usp=drive_web&formkey=dGpMME55aXJqbFZVWXg5bGdyMEwtckE6MA#gid=0

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Happy Easter


Christ is risen from the dead. Blessed is the resurrection of Christ.

Քրիստոս յարեաւ ի մեռելոց՜ Օրհնեալ է Յարութիւնն Քրիստոսի՜
Kristos haryav ee merelots. Orhnial e Harutiunn Kristosi.

Monday, February 03, 2014

2014 Armenian Economic Association annual meetings

The Armenian Economic Association 2014 annual meetings will be jointly hosted by Yerevan State University (YSU), the Russian Armenian University (RAU), and the American University of Armenia (AUA) on June 20-22, followed by a workshop June 23, 2014.

Scholars, graduate students, and researchers are invited to present their research in all areas of economics. Papers may address growth and development issues in Armenia and the South-Caucasus, regional trade patterns, trends in labor markets and migration, the aftermath of the global financial crisis, or any other topic representing current advances in economics and finance. Both theoretical and empirical works are welcome. The language of the conference is Armenian and English, and sessions will be organized by language and JEL fields below:

• Microeconomics; Industry Studies
• Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
• International Economics
• Financial Economics
• Public Economics
• Labor and Demographic Economics, Health, Education, and Welfare
• Growth, Economic Development, and Transition Economics
• Agricultural, Natural Resources, and Environmental Economics
• Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

If interested, please submit an abstract at http://aea.am/conferences.html, alternatively email it to aea2014[at] aea.am by April 15th. Submitted abstracts should be less than 500 words and include: title of paper, name(s) of author(s), affiliation, current position, an email address, and at least one keyword. In the abstract, please identify the research question, methods, and outcomes (obtained or expected). The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars, researchers, and students to promote the exchange of ideas and advance economics scholarship.

There is no submission fee nor any cost to present and participate. Contributions are welcomed by AEA.
If interested, apply for AEA membership here.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

2012 Household survey released

The 2012 Household Integrated Living Conditions Survey was recently released by Armstat. As with previously released surveys (2004-2011), observations are aggregated at the household level and information is released for a subset of the variables. You may download the survey for free from the databases page of http://armstat.am/. The survey, with select variables at the household member level, as well as by expenditure type (2011-12) are also available. The complete raw data is not publicly available.
The surveys are available both as xls and sav (spss) files. See my previous post to read or convert sav files to dta (stata).

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Pension reform in Armenia

Armenia's new pension system took effect this month, on schedule as part of legislation enacted in 2010. It consists of three pillars, with Pillar II calling for a mandatory private pension contribution scheme for those age 40 and under. By doing so Armenia joins a number of developed economies that have mandatory private pension plans in effect. Below is a snapshot from an OECD report on the prevalence of mandatory private pensions in 2010; countries with such plans include Australia, Chile, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland (recently switched to public), Slovakia, Sweden, and Switzerland. Even in countries that have "voluntary" private coverage, the plans are not strictly voluntary. Voluntary plans available by virtue of one's occupation (e.g. unionized shops) are not truly voluntary except for the choice of employment. Some of the countries listed in the table below may also have public plans. In the US, the social security system, a public plan, mandates a contribution rate of about 12 percent.
A short background and description of the challenges is provided by Delloitte. And everything you ever wanted to know about the new pension plan are provided by PALM. Despite the very wide publicity, seminars, and conferences, over a span of several years, only recently some opposition to the plan was expressed by some groups. Of course, there is widespread support for the provision of pension benefits to the elderly. All along I had expected some opposition, on ideological or philosophical grounds, to the proposed plan by those who support a public over a private plan. In other words, whether the government should tax workers and use the proceeds to fund retirees (PAYGO or otherwise). But the current debates have little to do with this, and I really do not see the merit of the arguments presented. The questions at hand are: do you want to provide the elderly with pension benefits, and if so, how do you fund it? These are very simple questions but yet not simple to address.

Note: This survey refers only to the experience of 34 OECD countries. A number of other countries have Pillar 2 type pensions in place. [Added January 18th]


Source: OECD WORKING PAPERS ON FINANCE, INSURANCE AND PRIVATE PENSIONS, NO. 20, 2012; "COVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS: EVIDENCE AND POLICY OPTIONS" 

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Season's Greetings

Happy New Year and Merry Christmas

Շնորհավոր Նոր Տարի եւ Սուրբ Ծնունդ