Thursday, March 29, 2012

Recovery of remittances

Remittances are on the rebound, and have recovered to nearly their pre-crisis levels. But they are below the levels suggested by their past trend. Russia is much of the source of these flows. Similar pattern should be observed for neighboring countries and others in the region.
For data on remittances for all countries in the world and for the years 1970 forward, see here.

Net non-commercial money transfers of individuals through commercial banks (USD millions)

Friday, March 23, 2012

Gradual economic recovery

After the major slump since the unset of the global crisis where Armenia's GDP shrank by 14 percent in 2009, the economy seems to be recovering. It is growing only at half the double digit growth rate experienced in much of the past decade, but nevertheless a very welcome pace of recovery.

Real GDP growth rates (%); 2012 is for the months of January-February

An alternative view is provided by the trend in per capita GDP (in nominal USD). But this trend is at times influenced by exchange rate fluctuations.

Per capita GDP

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Global crisis and migration from Armenia

The global financial crisis continues to leave its marks on the Armenian economy as can be gleaned from migration patterns. The number of those leaving the country has been outpacing those of arrivals in recent years, with the net figure peaking at around 44,000 in 2011. This represents a reversal of the growing net inflows witnessed in the first half of the decade.

Armenia is not unique in experiencing an increase in the outflow of migrants from developing countries in the aftermath of the Crisis. And the observed pattern continues to highlight the weak recovery of the Armenian economy. While this pales in comparison to the outflow experienced in the early 1990s, it nevertheless is a source of concern. It would be good to see some research on the attributes of these migrants, and on whether this is a temporary or permanent phenomenon.

Net Departures. For greater detail on arrivals and departures, see data page (under resources) of